The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) remains in a consolidation phase as investors focus on the next actions by the Federal Reserve. The TLT fund also wavered after this week’s US inflation data and the upcoming US public debt refinancing. TLT, which has over $50 billion in assets, was trading at $80, where it has been in the past few months.
TLT ETF outflows continue
Third-party data shows that investors have continued to pull money from the biggest long-term bond ETFs this year. After adding over $2.4 billion in assets in January, the fund has shed assets February and March, respectively.
These outflows are likely because of the ongoing fears about a recession in the US after Donald Trump announced a series of tariff proposals.
Trump has added a 25% tariff on imported goods from key trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China.
This week, Trump added a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, leading to European retaliation.
Trump has then insisted that the next phase of tariffs will come in April, when he will add reciprocal tariffs on all countries.
These huge tariffs have led to a higher odd of a recession in the US. Just this week, PIMCO, the company that Bill Gross started, boosted its recession odds to 35%.
A tracking data by the Atlanta Fed shows that the US was on track to contract in the first quarter of the year.
US bond yield trends and Federal Reserve
The TLT ETF has wavered as the market watches the performance of the US bonds. The 30-year bond yield has been in a strong upward trajectory, rising from 0.70% in 2020 to a high of 5.18% in 2024.
Similarly, the 10-year yield has jumped from 0.33% in 2020 to $5.022% in 2025. These numbers have moderated in the past few weeks as the rising recession odds lead to concern about the Federal Reserve.
The most recent data showed that the US inflation dropped in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy products, dropped from 3.3% to 3.1% in the same period.
These numbers may not matter much because they did not include the recently announced tariffs. As such, while inflation is expected to remain high for longer, analysts expect that the Fed will restart cutting interest rates in March to prevent a recession.
The TLT ETF is also reacting to the upcoming US debt refinancing. About $3 trillion worth of US debt is expected to be refinanced this year. That will likely provide another headache to the Treasury’s market that is not ready to absorb a massive issuance.
TLT ETF analysis
TLT ETF stock by Tradingview
The weekly chart shows that the TLT ETF has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few years. This weakness is in line with our recent forecasts, which you can read here and here.
There are signs, however, that the ETF may soon stage a strong comeback. It has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a popular bullish reversal sign. This pattern’s head is at $78, while the shoulders are around $85. The neckline is along the 23.6% retracement level at $96.8.
Therefore, a contrarian case can be made. If this happens, the initial TLT ETF stock target will be at $96.8. A move above that level will point to more gains, with the next level to watch being at the 50% retracement level at $117.83, up by 31% from the current level.
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