Dow futures nudged over 100 points higher on Monday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw some gains as investors waited to see what the latest inflation report would reveal.
The market is on the edge of its seat, because whatever the numbers say will likely decide the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
After a disappointing jobs report in August, there’s some cautious optimism on Wall Street that the Fed might consider a rate cut.
As the major indices sit near all-time highs, it’s clear that any new economic reports will be a big deal for the market this week.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. The technical picture is getting interesting across the major indices. The S&P 500 just hit fresh record highs and is bumping up against trend channel resistance around 6,540.
If it can break through and hold above that level, chart watchers think we could see a move toward 6,700. The Nasdaq 100 is sitting right at its 20-day moving average, which is basically make-or-break territory.
Hold that support, and things look fine, but if it cracks, the next stop could be around 22,400. September’s reputation for volatility isn’t helping the technical uncertainty.
2. This week’s inflation data is probably the most important economic release traders will see before the Fed’s September meeting.
The Consumer Price Index numbers will be crucial since the central bank is now in its blackout period and can’t provide any more guidance.
Everyone’s watching to see how tariffs and supply chain disruptions show up in the inflation print, since that could determine whether rate cuts are on the table and how aggressive they might be.
3. One of the more interesting trends has been the outperformance of small-cap and value stocks. The Morningstar US Value Index jumped more than 5% in August, crushing the Growth Index, while small-caps rose 4.6%.
It’s a complete reversal from earlier this year when growth and large-caps dominated.
Lower valuations and rate cut expectations are driving investors toward these previously unloved areas of the market, with communications, real estate, energy, and healthcare looking particularly attractive.
4. Individual stock moves are telling their own stories about where the market’s head is at.
Last week, Salesforce dropped over 5% on concerns about AI competition, while Broadcom surged 9% after landing a major AI accelerator order.
The consumer sector saw some wild swings too, as American Eagle jumped 38% on strong earnings while Lululemon crashed 19% after management warned about trade policy impacts.
5. Robinhood and AppLovin are both moving higher in pre-market trading on Monday after getting tapped to join the S&P 500 in the September 22 rebalancing.
These kinds of moves show how responsive the market has become to earnings beats, technological developments, and positioning in hot areas like AI and digital marketing.
It’s a market where individual stock picking and sector rotation are becoming increasingly important as broad-based rallies become harder to find.
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