The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to maintain their current halt on oil output increases for March, according to media reports.
This expectation comes as oil prices are on the rise, partly attributed to a decrease in Kazakhstan’s oil production.
Despite concerns about a potential supply glut, oil prices have risen by 8% this month, surpassing $66 a barrel.
This jump precedes the meeting of eight OPEC+ members, a group responsible for approximately half of the world’s oil supply.
The upcoming meeting of the eight key oil producers in OPEC+—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—is scheduled for February 1, marking a critical point for global oil supply policy.
These nations, which hold significant influence over the international oil market, have already made substantial decisions regarding production targets.
Specifically, they previously announced an agreement to increase their collective oil output targets by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) over the period spanning April to December 2025, according to a Reuters report.
This increase is substantial, equating to almost 3% of the world’s total oil demand, and reflects a coordinated strategy to adjust supply.
Oversupply fears prompted OPEC to pause hikes
However, in a move demonstrating their responsiveness to changing market conditions, these members collectively decided to pause the pre-agreed monthly hikes in production for the first quarter of the year, covering January, February, and March.
This temporary halt in production increases was directly prompted by weak demand forecasts circulating in the market.
The pause indicated a cautionary approach, aiming to prevent a potential oversupply that could drive down crude oil prices.
The February 1 meeting will therefore be crucial for reviewing the current demand landscape, assessing the impact of the paused hikes, and determining whether the pre-planned trajectory of output increases for the rest of 2026 remains viable or requires further modification.
Meanwhile, oil production from Venezuela is likely to gradually recover. According to Rystad Energy, massive capital investments are required for oil output to even reach 1.4 million bpd.
Early in January, the US captured President Nicolas Maduro, subsequently urging oil companies to invest in Venezuela to boost production.
The possibility of threats has increased concerns about reduced supplies, compounded by drone attacks and technical problems that have already decreased output.
Disruption in Kazakhstan lifts oil prices
Meanwhile, JP Morgan anticipates that the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will be out of commission for the remainder of January.
Consequently, JPM projects Kazakhstan’s crude oil production for January to be significantly lower than the typical 1.8 million barrels per day, averaging between 1.0 and 1.1 million bpd.
Crude oil prices rose on Monday, extending the previous session’s gain of over 2%.
This increase was driven by output disruptions in key US oil-producing areas and ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran.
US crude oil production has seen a daily loss of approximately 250,000 barrels, according to JPMorgan analysts in a Monday note.
This decline is attributed to severe weather, impacting regions such as the Bakken field in Oklahoma and parts of Texas.
Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, are keeping investors on edge and contributing to market caution, analysts noted.
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