NVIDIA stock price remains under pressure this week, even as American equities soared to a record high. NVDA dropped to a low of $180, down by 15% from its highest level in 2025. This article explores some of the top reasons why the stock may crash soon despite its encouraging valuation metrics.
NVIDIA stock price prediction: Technical analysis
The daily timeframe chart shows that the NVDA stock price has crashed from a high of $212 in October last year to the current $180.
It has flipped the Supertrend indicator from green to red, a sign that the downtrend is gaining momentum.
A closer look shows that the stock has formed a double-top pattern at $193 and a neckline at $175. A double-top is one of the most common bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
The stock has formed a big head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. It has also dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Therefore, the most likely NVDA stock price forecast is highly bearish, with the initial target being at $170, which is the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern.
A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $150, which is about 17% below the current level. A move above the resistance point at $190 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
NVDA is sending mixed signals
A key reason why the NVDA stock price is at risk of a strong bearish breakdown is that sales of its chips to China has stalled as the US conducts a review.
According to the Financial Times, these sales are waiting for final approval from the Trump administration, months after the president allowed the shipments.
The report added that Chinese companies were not placing orders, potentially as they waited for more clarity on whether NVIDIA will be able to deliver. NVIDIA believes that sales to China could bring in over $50 billion a year.
Experts believe that the review has taken longer than expected because officials are concerned some of these chips will go to the Chinese military and intelligence agencies.
NVIDIA is also facing the risk that some large customers may reduce their AI build-up in the near term. A key concern is Microsoft, which is believed to be its biggest customer.
Microsoft stock price has crashed by double digits from its highest level in 2025, a trend that accelerated after publishing its financial results last week. These results showed that its cloud revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter. If this trend continues, the company will likely start slowing down its spending.
NVIDIA’s other main challenge is that its biggest customers are now building their ASIC chips. This includes companies like Amazon, Google, OpenAI, and Microsoft. OpenAI, which is unsatisfied with some of NVIDIA’s chips, has partnered with Broadcom to build these chips.
The company’s growth could be impacted by the ongoing memory shortage that has propelled companies like Western Digital and Seagate Technology higher.
Still, on the positive side, there are signs that NVIDIA has become a highly undervalued company based on its anticipated growth. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to 39, much lower than its five-year average of 45.
The company’s growth, excluding China, is expected to keep growing in the coming years. Analysts expect its 2025 revenue will be $213 billion, up by 53% YoY, while its 2027 revenue will be $234 billion, up by 51%.
If this happens, the company will get to over $500 billion in annual revenue in 2027 or 2028. A $500 billion revenue for a company with a net profit margin of 54% means that it will be making over $200 billion in annual profits.
READ MORE: Nvidia to invest $20B in OpenAI even as its China chip sales stalled: report
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