US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $561.9 million in net inflows on Monday, snapping a four-day run of outflows and marking their strongest single-day intake since mid-January.
The reversal in flows came despite continued volatility in Bitcoin prices, underscoring a growing divergence between short-term price action and institutional allocation behaviour.
Bitcoin fell to around $75,000 earlier on Monday before rebounding to roughly $78,500 later in the session, still well below levels seen prior to the recent sell-off.
The cryptocurrency climbed about 3% on the day after touching a nine-month low, but remains down roughly 39% from its all-time peak of over $126,000 reached in early October, according to data from CoinGecko.
ETF inflows led by Fidelity and BlackRock
Among US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, Fidelity’s FBTC led Monday’s inflows with $153.4 million, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted $142 million, according to Farside Investors data.
Bitwise’s BITB added $96.5 million in net inflows, while products from Grayscale, Ark & 21Shares, VanEck, Invesco and WisdomTree also reported positive flows.
The strong showing on Monday followed two consecutive weeks of net outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The funds shed $1.49 billion last week and $1.33 billion the week before, reflecting heightened investor caution as Bitcoin prices weakened.
In contrast to the rebound in Bitcoin ETF flows, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $2.86 million in net outflows on Monday, following outflows of $252.87 million last Friday.
Galaxy Digital flags downside risks
Despite the pickup in ETF inflows, analysts at Galaxy Digital cautioned that Bitcoin could continue its downtrend, citing a lack of clear catalysts to reverse recent losses.
Alex Thorn, the firm’s research lead, said Bitcoin has historically traded below its realised price at the bottom of previous bear markets and has typically found support “around or slightly below” that level before moving higher.
Thorn also pointed to the 200-week moving average as a key historical support level.
He noted that in each of the last three bull markets, Bitcoin found support near that average after falling below its 50-week moving average.
According to Thorn, Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November, while the 200-week moving average currently sits near $58,000.
“Those levels have historically marked cycle bottoms and made strong entry points for long-term investors,” Thorn said.
In a note on Monday, Thorn said there is a “significant chance” that Bitcoin could fall toward $70,000, the bottom of a gap in supply, before potentially testing its realised price of around $56,000, which represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation.
He added that Bitcoin continues to struggle to trade alongside gold and silver as part of a broader “debasement hedge trade,” with narratives currently working against the asset.
Bernstein sees potential bottom near cycle highs
A more constructive medium-term view was outlined by analysts at Bernstein, who said Bitcoin could bottom around its prior cycle high in the $60,000 range before staging a recovery, potentially in the first half of the year.
The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said the recent downturn follows a period of strong outperformance by gold relative to Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency’s market capitalisation versus gold approaching a two-year low as central banks ramp up gold purchases.
However, Bernstein argued that the current weakness may represent a short-term correction rather than the start of a prolonged bearish cycle.
The firm cited strong institutional participation through Bitcoin ETFs, which it said have amassed $165 billion in assets, as well as continued adoption by corporate treasuries.
The analysts also pointed to the absence of miner-driven capitulation, a feature of past downturns.
Instead, miners have diversified revenue streams toward AI-related data centre activity, reducing reliance on Bitcoin prices alone.
Policy dynamics in the US were highlighted as a potential longer-term catalyst, with Bernstein noting the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized government holdings and possible shifts in Federal Reserve leadership.
“We just don’t see a passive US government if the digital asset markets keep sliding,” the analysts wrote.
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